WHAT WOULD MAERSK DO?

ALL THE WAY Maersk, one of the world’s largest logistics companies, faces the complex challenge of operating in a world defined by geopolitical instability, shifting trade patterns, rising sustainability demands, and new technologies. Maersk must anticipate disruptions far earlier than traditional forecasting allows. They do not treat long-term trends as external forecasts, but as strategic constraints they must build into the company decades in advance.

Maersk integrates three horizons. First, it looks forward using a 100-year asset mindset: ships, ports, and networks last 20–40 years, so shifts are embedded into decisions long before they are obvious to the market. Second, they treat trade flows as “sensors” for emerging change. Third, Maersk takes irreversible bets, such as ordering green-methanol ships before fuel infrastructure existed, effectively forcing ecosystems to form around their future vision. Maersk doesn’t predict the future, they position themselves to shape it.

AT THE CROSSROADS OF GLOBAL CHANGE

Maersk is one of the largest logistics and transportation organizations in the world, moving millions of containers, products, and raw materials every day. It operates in a world that is becoming increasingly volatile and unstable: shifting economic power blocs, new scientific breakthroughs, technologies such as AI and IoT, the energy transition, sustainability pressures, and growing geopolitical tensions that lead to strong regionalization. Maersk sits quite literally at the crossroads of all these developments. At the same time, decisions about new shipping routes, ports, propulsion technologies, or ship types have time horizons of twenty to fifty years or more. That is why Maersk’s strategic thinking always includes the extremely long term: what will the world look like in forty, sixty, or even one hundred years? Think of melting polar ice caps and new northern routes, nuclear propulsion, or fully autonomous ships with crews based onshore.

THREE HORIZONS AND A “SPACE OF FLOWS”

To deal with this uncertainty, Maersk has developed a futuring approach with three closely connected horizons. The first is viewing the world as a space of flows: by integrating vast amounts of data on the movement of people, products, raw materials, routes, and demand patterns, Maersk can identify shifts in global dynamics at an early stage. The second horizon is continuous dialogue with customers and suppliers: how do their products, markets, and needs evolve over time? The third horizon consists of long-term scenarios around geopolitics, infrastructure, energy, and technology. Together, these three perspectives make Maersk truly futures ready.

NOT JUST ADAPTING, BUT SHAPING THE SYSTEM

Maersk also recognizes that adaptation is not always the best strategy. In long investment cycles, adapting can simply come too late. That is why Maersk deliberately chooses, at times, to help shape the system itself. From its position and its insight into the space of flows, the company dares to make informed Big Bets: ordering methanol-powered ships before demand is clearly visible, or developing green corridors before the market explicitly asks for them. These choices force other players in the ecosystem to move along. The underlying principle is clear: don’t just adapt to global change—shape it.

Ask yourself:

• Try to describe your product or service in
 20, 40 or 100-year view?

• If you look at your organization as a space of flows. What flows? And hat are the biggest shifts you see?

• Make one irreversible bet that would force the market to change around you (if you had the power & size). 
What standard would you set?